By Chris Sanders – csanders@sandersresearch.com
http://www.sandersresearch.com/
Originally posted at The Hemingway Table,
Le Metropole Café – www.lemetropolecafe.com, October 8, 2002.
“The international oil system started out as a setup to control a commodity,
oil. Over the years, and most recently under the direction of the United
States,
that has metamorphosed into a form of people control.” - Stephen Pelletiere,
Iraq and the International Oil System, Praeger 2001. pp. 223-4
“The United States is a very special country in that when we maintain this
position of military strength that we have now, we do it in support of
a
balance of power that favours freedom.” -US National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice in interview on News Hour with Jim Lehrer
“A coup consists of the infiltration of a small but critical segment of
the state
apparatus, which is then used to displace the government from its control
of
the remainder.” - Edward Luttwak, Coup d’État, A Practical Handbook,
Harvard
University Press, 1979 p.27
RULE NUMBER 1:
BE ECONOMICAL WITH THE TRUTH
Her Majesty’s government has finally released its long ballyhooed and much
awaited report on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Helpfully entitled
Iraq’s
Weapons of Mass Destruction its PDF version came with two title pages just
in
case we missed the first one. Actually, on reading the document, one rather
thinks this just another example of the careless, slipshod, and at times
downright
mendacious character of the rest of the document. There is no smoking gun
and
no evidence that the Iraqi government has or plans to use so-called weapons
of
mass destruction. What one does find is a repetitive catalogue of over
fifty pages
of charges, assertions and bombast designed to frighten and dissimulate.
What it
did to me was scare me out of my wits. If this is the best that the British
and
American governments can do to justify escalating the existing state of
war
against Iraq to an outright invasion, then god help us.
Striking in the discussion of the Anglo-Israeli-American assault on Iraq
is the
absence of historical context. Apparently the only context necessary is
the sort
of glib and meaningless chatter offered up by president Bush’s advisors
such as
Condi Rice. In fairness to Rice, however, opposition to the war can be
similarly
glib and blinkered.
Although much opposition to an invasion of Iraq centres on the oil question,
this
itself is curiously devoid of context. America, on this line of reasoning,
intends
to invade Iraq simply to enrich the oil barons of Texas. Superficially
plausible,
this is at best only partly true. This makes even less sense when one considers
that the US already had access to Iraqi production. It is the biggest customer
for
Iraqi "oil for aid" crude.
RULE NUMBER 2:
RIG THE MARKET
The oil market has always operated as a cartel. The specifics vary from
country to
country, but the nature of oil as a physical commodity has always meant
that
long-term profitability depends on regularity of supply and output. John
D.
Rockefeller’s Standard Oil was the first of the cartels, built upon the
insight that
refining and marketing control was essential to regulate output and to
keep prices
stable. The extremely high capital costs of transportation and refining
infrastructure need to be depreciated over long periods. This in turn means
that
cash flow needs to be stable.
Without this control, the industry would stagger from boom to bust and
the
needed investment in infrastructure could not take place.
As the world approaches the point at which half of the total endowment
of
extractable oil has been consumed, the point is also approaching at which
the
OPEC 5 countries of the Persian Gulf littoral will produce more than half
of
total world production. It is inconceivable in the real world that the
world’s major
power would view this with detachment given that it is also the world’s
most
profligate user of oil. The obsession of the Americans and the British
with
Saddam Hussein has perhaps more to do with the fact that he is a nationalist
than
it does with their ability to purchase his oil. After all, he does need
to sell it. If
this were simply a matter of getting oil, the market would do the job.
What is
intolerable is that a significant pool of petroleum is under the control
of what
amounts to an independent producer with a political agenda of his own.
That
threatens volatility, and volatility threatens profits. But even more important,
every major power today with the exception of Russia is a net importer
of oil.
Control of the Middle Eastern fields and access to and from them confers
an
advantage far more important than the profits of Halliburton or Exxon.
It means
control of the world.
RULE NUMBER 3:
REWRITE HISTORY; FAILING THAT, FORGET IT
The history of modern Iraq is basically the history of the relationship
between the
inhabitants of that’s country and the oil industry. Iraq has never enjoyed
the
stability of the industry’s long-term relationship with the ruling Al-
Saud in Saudi
Arabia. It has consequently, not enjoyed investment in the extraction,
transport
and refining infrastructure that Saudi Arabia has. Nor has it enjoyed the
relative
political stability of Saudi Arabia. The British maintained control of
their Iraqi
creation during the mandate period by installing a puppet ruler and then
supporting the numerous tribal groups in the country against him. Today
we have
come full circle. It was the British in Iraq who pioneered the use of airpower
to
chastise the remote and the recalcitrant. Seventy years on, British and
American
bombers are at it again.
It is not merely a coincidence, I think, that British interest in the Persian
Gulf and
Iraq dates from the early twentieth century when two things happened:
commercially exploitable quantities of oil were discovered there and the
British
navy made the decision to convert its warships from coal to oil. Nor is
it a
coincidence that the British decision to support a homeland for Jews in
Palestine
also dates from the same period. Situated on the Eastern Littoral of the
Mediterranean, Palestine flanks the approaches to the Suez Canal, and offers
access from the hinterland to the sea through the port of Haifa.
From: www.passia.org/palestine_facts/MAPS
The role of oil in the First World War is an arcane but important subject.
It
wasn’t until Germany was completely cut off from access to petroleum that
it
capitulated. In 1916, with the war raging, Britain and France signed the
Sykes-Picot Agreement dividing the Middle East into zones of direct control
and
zones of influence. A glance at the map is revealing. Their respective
zones of
influence divided the oil rich northern sector of modern Iraq around Mosul
and
Kirkuk. Following the war, the San Remo agreement ratified French control
of
Lebanon and Syria, effectively shutting France out of the biggest oil producing
regions. Britain was granted Palestine as a mandate, and established puppet
regimes in Baghdad and Amman, redrawing the map of the area to suit itself.
With
her army based in Egypt and Palestine, access to India via the Suez Canal
was
guaranteed. The oil to fuel her navy, whose job it was to protect those
sea-lanes,
was assured by her control of the Persian Gulf.
RULE NUMBER 4:
WHEN YOU CAN, LET OTHERS FIGHT;IN FACT, ENCOURAGE IT
Politically, direct control over such a vast area by a country the size
of Britain
was impossible. Indirect control, however, was feasible using client regimes.
Destabilisation of local political society ensured that the locals were
too busy
with other problems to have the time to mobilise against the British. In
this
context British sponsorship of Zionist immigration to Palestine is easy
to
understand. Britain deliberately encouraged the establishment of colonies
of
European settlers dependent on her whose presence and growing numbers
undermined the nascent Palestinian nationalist movement. Zionist settlement
proved to be a mixed blessing for the British. While certainly successful
in
diverting local attention, it has also proved to be a spur to local nationalism.
And
it is also true that one has to get one’s oil to the market. When for example,
plans
were made to transport oil from Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean,
it
was envisioned that the port of Haifa in mandate Palestine would serve
as the
Western terminus. Israeli independence in 1948 changed that.
Instead the Tapline, as it came to be called, transited Jordan and Syria
across the
Golan Heights to end at Sidon in southern Lebanon. By this time of course,
America had supplanted Britain as the region’s premier power, inheriting
control
of the oil, but also the problem of Palestine. At about the same time that
the
Israelis cut the Tapline by occupying the Golan in 1967, Britain completed
her
withdrawal from the world beyond Suez and left her last Middle Eastern
base in
Aden.
RULE NUMBER 5:
ALWAYS CARRY A BIG STICK
If the United States is so special, as Rice and others in Washington seem
to think,
it is more because of its similarity to the late British Empire than endowment
uniquely American. But the megalomania of those such as Rice, Cheney and
Rumsfeld is informed by the knowledge that they outspend the next twenty
nations combined on arms and are well ahead in the race to put surface
targetable
weapons into the "high ground" of space. In conventional military terms,
this will
be analogous to being the only air power. Historically, it is eerily reminiscent
of
the naval arms race set off a century ago by Britain’s fleet conversion
to oil.
But Britain also emerged from two World Wars burdened with foreign debt,
especially from India and Egypt. It had a globally deployed military with
commensurate commitments. The British had tried to insulate themselves
from
the inevitable consequences of this by the creation of a sterling zone
that forced
creditors to accept sterling in settlement of debts. This invites comparison
to
modern America. The United States may have been the victor of the Cold
War,
but was forced to go deeply into debt to win. That is has been able to
finance this
has been thanks to her ability to mobilise her own and foreign capital,
and this in
turn has depended on the cooperation of her allies, much the same as Egypt
and
India cooperated with Britain. The result has been the creation of an international
monetary regime analogous to the British Sterling Area. Unlike the Sterling
Area,
however, no one is outside the dollar system. Thus the US has achieved
what
Keynes and the British could only dream of in the 30s and the 40s: a global
closed international monetary system in which all debts are settled in
the
currency of the debtor.
The political logic of this seems plain enough to me: In order to build
overwhelming military power, one has to borrow. In order to carry that
debt, one
has to have overwhelming military power, else one’s creditors ask for their
money back. In this connection, Rice continued:
"…if it comes to allowing another adversary to reach military parity with
us in the
way that the Soviet Union did, no, the United States does not intend to
allow that
to happen…because when that happens, there will not be a balance of power
that
favours freedom…there will be a balance of power that keeps part of the
world in
tyranny the way the Soviet Union did."
Such self-referential and tautological reasoning ironically evokes what
else, but
tyranny?