Date:              Fri, 09 Aug 2002 21:51:09 -0700
From:             Jim Pivonka <pivonka571@earthlink.net>
To:                  W N <wjn@a---.net>
References:             1 , 2 , 3 , 4

Yes, an invasion does stand a good chance of turning into a Bay of Pigs debacle, and I doubt the Bushites could devise one I could support within the next 12 months.  It would be foolish in the extreme to expect a popular uprising, or spontaneous formation of a reasonable system of governance in Iraq.

The possibility that I could support military action in Iraq is a speculative one, based on an extremely unlikely set of actions by the Bushites.

At the opposite extreme from the Bay of Pigs, during WW II we had governments in exile in place, which did not all work out, but which helped significantly.  We also had good contacts with local resistance organizations, and were free to support them operationally during the course of the war.

The two are each very different from Iraq.  If the US were to show patience and persistence now, and avoid action in haste and secrecy, we might avoid the Bay of Pigs model, and create a strategic situation more like Europe in WW II.

I am probably only slightly less skeptical than you of the Bushites ability to show such discipline.  Or even to face the fact that to succeed, they need to think in terms of that kind of multi-faceted, long term, total mobilization warfare.  They certainly seem to be trying to convince the rest of us that immediate action is needed and stands a chance of success.  I do not believe it does.

Like Kennedy in Cuba and Johnson in Viet Nam, I see mostly that they want it on the cheap, quick, and dirty.  I don't think it will work, if they attempt it that way.  If they were to try to do it right, they might, or might not find that the resources and political support for success were eventually available.  They might even be able to ensure a successor government would be an improvement, instead of another of our many post WW II mistakes.

I guess what I am saying, is that if they did attempt a progressive build up, of the breadth I speculate would be essential, it might eventually be possible for me to support direct military intervention as the capstone of the project.